Because one number isn’t enough to stay ahead of the market.
AG2 Probabilistic Forecasts is next-gen weather decision support, delivering every possible outcome in our intuitive AG2 Trader platform or API.
In a market where most folks are trading on one number, be ahead of the game by knowing if that number is a slam-dunk or a finger in the wind, simply by using our proprietary Frisk index.
We’ve done the work for you, bias-correcting and calibrating all of the model ensembles into 100 equally likely outcomes, allowing users:
- A quick evaluation of tail risk during extreme events (e.g., what is the probability temperatures below 10 degrees in Dallas?)
- The ability to see where the AG2 forecast lies relative to the rest of the 100 members
Interested in learning more? Reach out! Email Sales@AtmosphericG2.com for a free trial.
AG2 Frisk index takes everything one step further:
- Distills the data from all 100 members down into a single number between 0-100
- High numbers mean that the range of the 100 forecasts is much larger than normal for that location, forecast day, and time of year, while low numbers mean the forecast is much more certain
- Maps are produced that show the spatial variation in Frisk, with high numbers (high uncertainty) presented in red, and low numbers in green – this allows users to quickly see where the hard forecast problems are!
- Frisk tables on the AG2 Trader platform allow you to see where forecast uncertainty is especially high or low and also gives you and indication of where the market-moving AG2 forecast may move the next morning (warmer or colder)
The slider bars (above) allows you to select a specific interval that may be of interest, displaying the probability of the forecast at, above, or below the interval.
The table (below) shows you quickly where the forecast is likely to shift, where green is low risk and red is high risk.
Interested in learning more? Reach out! Email Sales@AtmosphericG2.com for a free trial.
Benefits
80% Reduction in Time Spent Interpreting Weather Data
“From 15-20 minutes each morning down to just seconds.”
– Anonymous Trader
3.5% Increase in Profitability Per Trade
“We saw ~5% profit increase, as graphics and analysis in AG2 Trader can lead to smarter and potentially larger trades, and can highlight risks and changes before other models.”
– Anonymous Trader
50% Reduction in Time Spent Creating Reports/Analysis
“It shows us everything that’s factoring into a given forecast. This helps increase confidence in the trades being made. We can size up trades using more data, and be more precise in the trades being done.”
– Anonymous Trader
What our customers think
“The probabilistic data helps me size up trades with more confidence and more precision.”
Energy Trader
Energy Company
“The probabilistic tools are vital — they help us understand how the market will respond.”
Head of Market Research
Energy Company
Don’t trade one more day without FRisk. Email us to give it a try.
